A prospective study of relationships between propositions about risk and driver speeding.

Risk propositions are specific and modifiable hypotheses that people hold about the outcomes of risk-taking behavior. According to fuzzy trace theory (FTT), risk propositions arise from the subjective and idiosyncratic interpretations that people make about the meaning of risk information, and form the primary basis of decision-making. A community sample of 255 drivers was interviewed at baseline (T1), 6 weeks after baseline (T2) and 14 weeks after baseline (T3). We tested whether propositions about speeding-related risk at time 1 (T1) would predict speeding at time 3 (T3), controlling perceptions of speeding-related danger and other speeding-related variables (the perceived possibility of being caught and the enjoyment and excitement to be gained from speeding) measured at time 2 (T2). We also tested whether relationships between T1 propositions and T3 speeding would be mediated by T2 perceptions of danger. T1 propositions predicted T3 speeding independently of the control variables, and we also found evidence consistent with mediation by T2 danger. In line with FTT, risk propositions were not scaleable as a single dimension, but generally predicted speeding as independent entities. Taken together these findings support the view that drivers perceive speeding risk as a series of potentially modifiable propositions which may have item-specific influences on speeding behavior.